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Showers on the Way Followed by Drier, Cooler, Fall-Like Weather

Rain and cooler temperatures are on the horizon.

It looks like we'll finally get some rain back in the picture for the start of the work week. Computer models are forecasting a low pressure system to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and potentially bring 2-3" of rain over the north Georgia area on Monday and Tuesday.

Later today we'll start to see an easterly flow of moisture off of the Atlantic that will provide showers in southeast-east Georgia. By tomorrow, the flow will be from the southeast as the high pressure system that has kept us sunny and dry for the last week shifts off into the Atlantic, and we'll start to see our chances for rain increasing ahead of an approaching shortwave due to orographic lifting of the air mass. 

Our best chances for rain will come on Monday and Tuesday as the low pressure that will form in the Gulf will move NE and bring with it very good chances for rain. Isentropic lift will cause warm moist air to override the cooler air at the surface and provide showers and thundershowers late Sunday into Monday morning. The cooler air at the surface will finally begin to leave on Monday and bands of thundershowers and embedded thunderstorms will rotate through our area during the day on Monday and Tuesday. 

Do you like fall weather? Get ready... after the rain moves out of our area late Tuesday, temperatures take a tumble with models showing highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the next several days. 

We still need the rain as the drought monitor still shows us in an extreme to exceptional drought area. We would need 9-12" of rainfall  (last image on the drought monitor page) to break the drought that we're in and we're not going to be getting that kind of rainfall anytime soon. 

So enjoy the nice weather for today and tomorrow before the rain returns, followed by cooler, drier fall like weather. 

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North Georgia Weather September 18, 2012 at 07:48 PM
Correction, I've had 1.07" total so far, I confuse myself sometimes! :-)) There is still a chance for a little more as the back side of the upper level system exits the area. There are some showers developing in northern Alabama that will be rotating this way over the next several hours as the low slides off to the northeast, but the heavy rain is over. Sorry guys, we'll try harder next time. At this point, an inch is better than nothing! :-)
Tommy Hunter September 18, 2012 at 07:56 PM
Let's ignore the next one. Talking about it just seems to screw things up. Kinda like the Braves announcer talking about the guy coming up is like 0-for-his-last-100 and he takes the first pitch deep for a grand slam! I'd bet a $100 there won't be no "dry slot" involved when it hits the mid-Atlantic and northeast.
North Georgia Weather September 18, 2012 at 10:06 PM
LOL!!! That's good! :-) Funny how that works isn't it! And they are really getting some rain up that direction right now. Dry slots are one of those play by play things that are very hard to predict. Here's a 5:45pm GOES satellite image of the clouds over Georgia: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/goes_tue.jpg
North Georgia Weather September 18, 2012 at 10:38 PM
Atlanta radar totals: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/final_total.png Huntsville radar totals: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2012_09/final_total_htx.png Notice the streaks where the heaviest rain fell.
North Georgia Weather September 19, 2012 at 11:29 AM
So after the rainfall, we stand a little more than 5 inches below normal for the year. We need what Tennessee got the next time around. Here's our rainfall scorecard so far: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_rainfallsummary_main.php If the El Nino winter pans out as expected, systems like this will be the norm for the southeast. Throw cold air on top of that and that's what many are thinking this winter will be like. A storm like this one a little further west and south and we might be looking at a major snow storm for our area. I know Kristi hates for me to mention snow so I just had to throw that in here... :-))

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