TS Dorian - Potential Southeast Rain Maker?

Will Dorian have any effect on our weather?

Dorian 5 day official forecast track
Dorian 5 day official forecast track
As if we haven't had enough rain, we now have to look toward next week as Tropical Storm Dorian makes it's way across the Atlantic toward the southeast US. (Dorian page)

The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on Dorian, and as of this morning, Dorian was located out in the middle of nowhere in the Atlantic and is moving WNW at about 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are currently around 50 mph and extend about 60 miles out from the center. 

Dorian has weakened overnight and appears a little disorganized right now, and for the next several days Dorian will not be in a favorable environment for strengthening. You can see the unfavorable shear conditions that Dorian will be entering from these shear maps. Sea surface temperatures are great, but without upper air support, strengthening will be slow to occur, if it occurs at all. 

The current 5 day forecast track (see image above) brings Dorian toward Florida by Wednesday of next week. A few models take her toward the Bahamas while others take her toward the Florida peninsula. Plenty of time for all of this to change, so we'll keep an eye on Dorian's progression as she quickly takes aim toward the southeast. You can keep track of Dorian as she approaches the US from this page.

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Sharon Swanepoel July 26, 2013 at 12:34 PM
Nooo, not more torrential downpours, please. A light afternoon sprinkle, maybe, but not another run of rain, rain and more rain.
North Georgia Weather July 26, 2013 at 12:38 PM
Maybe not. One possible scenario is that Dorian moves straight across the Gulf and toward Texas, another is that it will begin to curve north before getting Florida. And of course... it may do neither and re-curve after crossing Florida and move toward the southeast.
North Georgia Weather July 27, 2013 at 09:50 AM
This morning, Dorian is struggling to survive. The Dr. NHC doesn't think she'll make it more than a few more days, they even said "WILL PROBABLY DIE OUT IN FOUR DAYS ... OR HOPEFULLY SOONER." So sad... ;-) There could be a little development today as Dorian passes under a weak upper level ridge. But with dry air to its west and south, it's going to have a difficult time in staying together.
North Georgia Weather July 27, 2013 at 10:44 AM
From my weather buddy Larry this morning -------------- "If Dorian does end up dissipating over open water or over Hispaniola, it would be doing what about 1 in 4 July-Aug CV storms have done since ~1960...i.e., it is a rather common outcome. It is about as common as a US hit."
North Georgia Weather July 27, 2013 at 03:21 PM
Pretty much time to write Dorian off I believe.
North Georgia Weather July 30, 2013 at 06:47 AM
I need .13" of rain before midnight Wednesday in order to hit 10" for the month. Don't believe that will be a problem. The NWS is calling for 0.50 - 1.00" of rain on Wednesday


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